Predictive analytics and performance assessment tools for private market investors
| Overcome the analytical challenges posed by private markets
Forecasting
Bella Analytics leverages historical cash flow and valuation data to generate thousands of possible outcomes for your specific portfolio. This process yields probabilities for cash flow and return outcomes, demystifying the process of developing risk, return, and pacing expectations.
As inputs, our historical simulation model requires only existing information about the funds you own or are considering investing in — their current valuations, any contributions already made, and any performance to-date.
The software will analyze your portfolio and then simulate hundreds or thousands of trajectories for how its cash flows could evolve into the future, based on the realized outcomes of historical funds. The distribution of simulated outcomes provides estimates of cash flow timing, risk, return, and more for your specific portfolio.
Our software allows you to make additional adjustments to incorporate private information about your funds or broader market expectations to explore potential impacts on your portfolio. You can focus on historical time periods—such as the GFC—to understand what could happen if history were to repeat itself, or directly adjust cash flows to understand the impacts of exit activity drying up, valuations falling, or other downside scenarios.
Our software allows you to match assets to liabilities, assess securitization structures, and estimate tail risk simply and quickly. Custom-built modules that model unique fee terms, payout waterfalls, and more can be integrated into the software to help answer your most complex questions in tailored ways.
Benchmarking
Bella Analytics’ benchmarking solutions save time and effort by naturally accounting for the irregular timing of cash flows and other nuances of assessing performance. No single metric or benchmark captures performance in full, so Bella Analytics takes a “big tent approach.” Our solutions provide a holistic view of performance in relation to both broad and tailored benchmarks—for both public and private markets—using metrics like internal rate of return, multiple of invested capital, and public market equivalents like the Kaplan-Schoar PME and Direct Alpha.
Understanding returns is one thing; understanding the drivers of returns is another completely. Bella Analytics provides the ability to slice-and-dice your portfolio to understand which strategies, managers, and funds are driving your performance to inform future decision-making.
